Time To Support Perú, But ...

 It is time to support Peru, but observers should keep an eye open to authoritarian temptation

We have yet to pass the start-line and it's a long way to the finish.

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The following are excepts from Carlos E. Ponce’s Article "Is Ollanta Humala the New Autocrat Apprentice?" I think it is a good read for anyone interested in Perú’s future direction. I like Humala’s opening moves, he appears to be distancing himself from his lifelong authoritarian radicalism, but he is not even president yet and it is much too early to “write a blank check.” It is difficult to derive a history of leadership abilities and integrity from a man who is in every sense a wild card.  

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He (Humala) comes from the military and he has no government, business, academic or administrative background, so for him the democratic game will be really hard to play. Humala will try for sure to change the constitution in two years to seek for social changes (maybe reelection) and he will be also tempted to reduce the influence of other political parties, including Toledo’s, in his administration. He will have the inclination, as Alberto Fujimori did, to instigate a confrontation with the Parliament to gain control.

Civil society will be a key factor in controlling Humala’s behavior, but it is also time to motivate youth movements to participate in politics and in civil society organizations. Youth will continue to be a countering force in Venezuela and other Alba Countries. Young people are also a critical force in countries on the fence between the two realities, and they will be important to keeping Peru free and democratic and force Humala to keep his promises of a true democratic ruling. Youth movements can become a force for positive change—a voice to hold Humala to his promise that he wants more freedom and democracy, not less.

The Peruvian elected president had a meeting with President Barack Obama and promised to respect free trade, now he will have the challenge to fulfill his words. But his actions distanced himself of such promises when he also visited the long lasting tyranny of the region. When Ollanta Humala made a suppressive trip to Habana to meet Raúl and Fidel Castro and Hugo Chávez he is just mapping his way to a new autocracy in the Americas. He is supporting tyranny and autocracy in Cuba and Venezuela. He is just trying to play a game of power, but it is not a good game for an apprentice.

It is time to support Peru, but not with a blank check. Observers should keep an eye open to authoritarian temptation in and leader’s appetites to seek unending presidential terms or to follow the example of Cristina and the late Nestor Kirchner of Argentina. His trip to Cuba is a strong message of the new times for Peru.

When Gambling, "Keep Your Eyes On The Cards."

CLICK HERE FOR REACTIONS FROM INVESTORS AND FINANCIAL ANALYSTS TO HUMALA'S  PICKS.

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Impressing Investors

Julio Velarde to remain as head of Peru's Central Reserve Bank

from living in Peru

Peru’s President-elect Ollanta Humala has stated that the head of the country’s Central Reserve Bank, Julio Velarde, will remain in office. Current President Alan Garcia commented by saying it was a “wise decision” that would give Peru "immediate trust in international markets."

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PNE Opinion:

This is a good decision. It points to a more measured approach, rather than the radical rhetoric of Humala’s past campaigning. As for Congressman Javier Diez Canseco’s comment, that this move was only to reassure investors, reassuring investors is just fine with me. As will be any future decisions by Huamla that show deference to the investment and business community. I don’t care what the reason is, what I care about is that Humala’s agenda remains controlled by real world circumstances and ramifications. If at any time that changes it will negatively impact, not only my opinion of Humala’s leadership, but also the opinion of the world investment community. This is a hopeful sign that Humala not only understands that fact, but that he is willing to yield to it. The only path to opportunity and a prosperous future, for all residents of Perú, is through continued foreign investment.

Comments posted here may be copied to the Peru-N-English Discussion Group site.